Photo: RIA Novosti
One of the most faithful partners of Russia in all its endeavors – Kazakhstan – Add a headache after the beginning of the events in Ukraine. Not only that the authorities had hastily put out any attempt to destroy so long scalable appearance of stability, so also the voices of Russian politicians strongly emphasizes that Kazakhstan disappear from her nowhere.
At the end of September Aktobe (this is a major regional center in western Kazakhstan) present court drama played out with a claim to relevance. 86-year-old pensioner Galina Gavrilovna sued his neighbor Lyudmila A.. That allegedly put his fence so that the selected part of the law of land Galina Gavrilovny. But the court filed a pensioner is not because of this, and because a fair requirement to move the fence Lyudmila called his girlfriend “banderovkoy”, “fascist” and offered to “clear the maidan.” This offended the elderly woman so that she demanded 300 thousand tenge (about 70 thousand) as moral damages.
The final story is unknown for sure, but quite well established that the two women in his spare time from neighboring litigation very fond of watching TV channel “Russia”. And they are not alone: according to TNS Gallup Media Kazakhstan, Russian TV products officially only looks half the population (in this case 38% of the total television audience is watching TV channel “RTR-Planeta” – a product RTR). Leadership holds “Channel Eurasia”, but the news on it largely duplicates the position of Moscow, although not complete carbon copy of the Russian counterpart. Nevertheless, these figures suggest a complete victory of Russia in Kazakhstan on the ideological front. And that’s not all: Russia politically and economically so tight “ingrained” in the consciousness of Kazakh society and the Kazakh government that any attempts of some people to resist arouse confusion among the majority of inhabitants.
Straight yard ideology
News Russia’s influence on his “little brother” in the long run always felt. Most of the people of Kazakhstan, coming from the Soviet Union, still prefer to watch Russian channels and read the Russian press. And the mass media of Kazakhstan due to its size and approach to the matter could not amount to much the same competition “Komsomolskaya Pravda” or “MK».
Since the beginning of Ukrainian events all became much worse. Designed for indoor use Russian rhetoric of the same “News of the Week” and slapped on Kazakh society. “What is now going on Russian TV channels, plugged away for a belt Soviet propaganda – sure-known Kazakh human rights activist and expert of the International Bureau for Human Rights Zhovtis. – Very powerful draw of a card of nostalgia for the Soviet Union and anti-Westernism. ” Massive blow to the psyche and the historical memory (“fascists” and “junta” – two very strong semantic tools) did their job: according to the presidential Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, the union with Russia in various unions (primarily Eurasian) support 73% of the population and 58% believe that Russia would be nice to be in the political integration, not just economic. And according to the Public Foundation “Center of Social and Political Studies” Strategy “, Russia in its conflict with Ukraine supported 64% of the population – and among those who read the Russian media, such was 80%.
It is noteworthy that most of all by the Russian propaganda were the ones who had to resist – Kazakhstan journalists. “Journalists are people first, and, unfortunately, most of them in Kazakhstan as well” treated “Russian TV – lamenting known Kazakhstani journalist Sanat Urnaliev. – Only a few Kazakh media were given the opportunity to speak to the Ukrainian side and the revolution called a revolution, and the “militia” separatists and people Putin. Most journalists, bloggers and editors in captivity of self-censorship, someone actually banned, but, unfortunately, the majority simply thinks so ».
Of course, this situation did not like the Kazakh government, which wanted to maintain their information policy. Yet in 2013 the Secretary of State of Kazakhstan, Marat Tajin said that you need to develop your media to not depend on the opinions of a neighbor. However, between “want” and “do” – journey of a thousand miles. Time after time, the Kazakh authorities suffered defeat at the front fighting Russian propaganda. It should, however, be noted that the officials tried to carelessly or not at all in that way. For example, the government tried to introduce in the country compulsory registration of all foreign channels as Kazakhstan legal entity, but most of the structures – both Russian and foreign TV – a formality overcome easily.
Then the officials running errands Tajin, tried to develop not only the state media as his own army of bloggers bought. But experts in Kazakhstan and could not understand what it is for and what specific structure before it will stand the problem. And where to get these bloggers if they too are under the influence of propaganda machines? “When the war unfolded in social networks in connection with the Ukrainian events, highly salient that pro-Russian commentators almost a hair’s breadth repeat the words spoken by the Russian media – analyzes the Kazakhstan segment of Internet political scientist and director of the” Risk Assessment Group “Dosim Satpayev. – So-called propaganda phrases that use the media – “fascists”, “Bandera” – they were all eating. Opponents, by contrast, used the words that the West uses in relation to Russia, – “aggressor”, “invader”, “a revival of the Soviet Union.” And this is further proof that they both are influenced by someone else’s propaganda. ” With these bloggers and do not need enemies.
Finally, the government could use its most powerful weapon – the state order. In 2014, according to the director of “legal media center” Diana Okremovoy on was allocated 40 billion tenge (almost 10 billion rubles). Their ideas official Astana could distribute through regional editions: they are, in fact, the only ones who can compete with Russian media, at least in their regional centers. However, the procedure of allocation of state orders for the old traditions are extremely opaque, which paves the way for abuse. Besides the Kazakh authorities, fearful events and Ukrainian Crimea, completely excluded from any mention of the state order of ideas “Mangilik eating” and “Cossack ate” (both ideas have been put forward, Nursultan Nazarbayev, and, in fact, intended to strengthen natspolitiki that did not like Russian country). “Of course, in this matter in the state order, a considerable tightening – confirms Okremova. – Comes to the absurd when innocent articles looking for something extremist ».
As a result, Kazakhstan lost information on all fronts. “Kazakhstan’s information policy is like there, but it is so wrinkled and amorphous that it is practically not, – says the analyst Dosym Satpayev. – Reached Kazakhstani mass media in the initial stages of the conflict rebroadcast Ukrainian, Russian media. This is a paradox, because logically, if you are a national media, you should have its own correspondent network. We – consumers opponent information, and consequently, a foreign propaganda ».
Economic attachment
Fight neighbor would be ideologically easier, if not the close economic ties between the two countries. Russia – the main trade partner of Kazakhstan, in the past year, the trade volume was $ 21.4 billion. On the other hand, the power to blame itself: in the early 90′s were sold almost all the oil fields – mainly China but also the United States and Russia . Over time, were found several fields, and it would have been nice if the major developments – Kashagan – not closed indefinitely. And then it was revealed Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian fuel in question, more than 40% of the gasoline in the country is imported from its territory. On top of that fuel national operator of Kazakhstan JSC NC “KazMunaiGas” decided to remove from the market all the small middlemen and work directly with Russia. This led to gasoline shortages across the country, and rising fuel prices.
Another hook (but local), which holds Russia Kazakhstan – is gas, more precisely, its processing to the western regions of the country. Now in the West Kazakhstan region, which produces most of the country’s gas, the price of natural gas – the fourth most expensive in the country. The problem is that the transportation of gas for its processing is carried out in the neighboring Orenburg – on Europe’s largest gas processing plant. Moving gas across the border and his return rise residents WKO pretty penny (4 rubles per cubic meter – is considered to be very expensive), though even this summer, the then Minister of Oil and Gas Uzakbai Karabalin and his deputy Magzum Mirzagaliev fervently convinced the author that there is simply no other options and to build a gas processing plant in WKO expensive. Although it is cunning. Civil activists from Uralsk – initiative group “People’s control over tariffs” – found that the territory WKO already have a gas processing plant: only need the political will to start it. Since there is no political will, it is suggestive of backroom agreements between Kazakhstan and Russia is of such a scheme of interaction of gas.
Finally, the main economic reason that Kazakhstan has little to protest Russia – is notorious Eurasian Union. Conceived in 1994, Nursultan Nazarbayev as an economic association of EAEC, in 2014 he became the object of Russian influence on its neighbors. Moreover, in conditions of total pressure from Russia around the world puts on EAEC even more than others, so the ratification of all relevant documents in an expedited manner becomes a crucial matter.
Kazakhstan’s parliament, by the way, pulled from the ratification of the treaty until early October . However, Russia was worth to spend at the borders with Kazakhstan military exercises, the contract was immediately ratified. Experts Kazakh economic diary “course” called it a demonstration of muscles, but the official version, the ratification and teaching in the same time – it’s just a “coincidence».
Independence with an eye to Moscow
Not surprisingly, in this situation, Kazakhstan was forced to retreat from their favorite principle of multi-vector policy. It happened in the situation with the Crimea, when the referendum was passed by the Kazakh authorities ‘understanding’, although many expect a more cautious tactics. “None of our country really did not pull the tongue, – complains analyst Satpayev. – I always compare it to how we behaved in 2008 during the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict. Then there was a similar situation, because for us, Georgia – the same economic partner. But at the same time Kazakhstan has held the position of third-party and called for stability, peace and dialogue. However, he did not recognize neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia. And with the Crimea was a time when Kazakhstan too sided with the Russian position, which, incidentally, has caused two notes of protest on the part of Ukraine. This has never happened ».
Explain the logic of the Kazakh government is actually easy. “We need to understand that Kazakhstan is in a very difficult geopolitical situation – said human rights activist Yevgeny Zhovtis. – On the one hand – the Russian, the other – to China. In addition, the country’s vast territory and rich mineral deposits. And the impact on Kazakhstan reality Russia has a clear priority. While Russia did it in a gentle manner, Kazakhstan could lead a multi-vector policy. The situation in Ukraine has changed everything. ” However, after some time, Kazakhstan tried to back off and replaced the rhetoric with the full support of Russia to call for peaceful dialogue and conflict resolution.
It is unlikely, of course, the country spurred two protest notes. Most likely, the authorities simply feared a repeat of the Maidan and the Crimean events at home. A prerequisite for this were: early spring, Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Limonov synchronously spoke on the topic, that it would be good to return the Northern Kazakhstan Russia, as these areas have always been a native Russian. Reaction of Kazakhstan did not have to wait long – though it turned out somewhat blurred: Zhirinovsky just complained to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Limonov do not have to touch it, but the brunt for their citizens as a toughening penalties for separatism.
But offensive to the people of Kazakhstan statements by Russian politicians were not over. In August, Vladimir Putin “Seliger” inadvertently spoke of Kazakhstan’s statehood – say, Nazarbayev to her like as not. This caused a great scandal in Kazakhstan itself – particularly zealous citizens breaks even staged a “textbook Send Putin.” Around the same time, the newly revitalized Zhirinovsky: media disseminated by his statement that after Ukraine’s Donbass and the next step will be the return of Kazakhstan. However, both applications were launched on the brakes gently, since all these words outraged the first national-patriots, and their in Kazakhstan – especially compared with the pro-Russian majority – units.
So is it possible to Ukrainian scenario in Kazakhstan? In theory – yes. The country is home to around 3 million Russian (21.47% of the population of all Kazakhstan). Most of them live in the north, east and west of the country – just on the border with Russia. However, despite the dissatisfaction of the local, and sometimes even the central government, society in its weight inert. Moreover, the government itself in the face of Nazarbayev periodically puts out a fire smoldering because of the language issue (September President again said that it was unacceptable to infringe the Russian language). So if in the country and begin the excitement, the reason is simply giperserezny.
It is worth noting that Russia is actually completely satisfied with the status quo. “I think udavok by Russia in relation to Kazakhstan will be no more, – said the human rights activist Yevgeny Zhovtis. – With the introduction of the EAEC to strengthen the presence of Russian capital in Kazakhstan. The only thing – Russia will disturb the configuration of power after the departure of Nazarbayev. In this sense, the pressure will be strong ».
However, Astana tries to snap back. She did not join the anti-Western sanctions initiated by Russia. Nursultan Nazarbayev threatens exit from all unions, if Russia is too infringe on the sovereignty of Kazakhstan. And on the eve of the CSTO summit in May and did Nazarbayev met with the American ambassador. However, in Astana and Moscow understands that this is all “liberalism within” because there is no place to retreat to Kazakhstan – behind China with their plans. A lesser of two evils in this case, whichever is less. So the Kremlin can be calm, soon the number of viewers, “News of the Week” in Kazakhstan certainly not decrease.
Vyacheslav halves – especially for the “New»
Author – Kazakh journalist
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