Over a period of time, which in Russia is called the stage of sustainable “Putin consensus”, it was believed that with a full refrigerator – or, in other words, in terms of relative prosperity – the population (people of no one and did not think to consider) readily provide authorities carte blanche to any political action, allowing it to restrict civil liberties, to expand the space of corruption and reduce the economic and personal scores with their opponents. Indeed, in such a situation, the majority of the population practically does not react to the evident change the situation in the country, even the crisis of 2008-2009 the authorities ‘flooded’ money, and protests have disappeared, failing to appear
The next step was forming. the new reality, the deteriorating economic situation (growth rate slowed down just as many months and years, as Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin is in his third term as president) and the need to react to it. In fact, from that time, and we can talk about that, “the TV anti-fridge”, about which we hear so much about.
The most important task of the government in this situation was to find the enemy and constantly shifting the focus of the propaganda machine. We are, as I recall, heard about the need to deal with foreign agents in the environment of public organizations; about the threat to our morality emanating from the people “non-traditional” sexual orientations; about growing Western aggression, does not understand, why would it suddenly Russia has begun “reunite” with not belonging to it territories, and so on.
We are still living in this period, where the propaganda task is the formation of citizens of the conviction that a deterioration in their financial situation (due to inflation, it is impossible to raise salaries and pensions, the effect becoming cheaper ruble, self-restraint in the supply of imported food, and others.) – quite acceptable fee “getting up off its knees” and increasing (illusory or not to decide each person) the international prestige of Russia. The war is, in fact, between the real and imaginary world, between everyday reality and perception. So far, judging by the ratings of the support and all the public opinion polls, imagination wins a reality.
The vast majority of liberal-minded experts are convinced that this situation can not last long, and enthusiastically waiting (many already seven or eight s) the imminent collapse of the regime. However, year after year, their hopes horizon moves away – and, as it should be horizontal, is able to move, in my opinion, almost indefinitely. Why is the result of an epic battle and did not seem certain, and whether the authorities ensure the “TV” win over “fridge” (a victory I understand in this case, the ability to retain the existing status quo indefinitely)?
The optimists (those who expects to change to the “political front” because of the difficulties in the “economic”) are based on the standards they understand the concept. In any Western country economic contraction of 5-6% in a two-fold depreciation of the national currency can cause a public outcry, which will carry any government. However, assessing the situation in Russia, it is necessary to take into account two features.
On the one hand, Russian society bessubekten. In most developed countries between the authorities and the population is mass public organizations, broadcasting signals coming from both the top down and the bottom up. Signals sent by the authorities, is reduced according to the degree of influence of these institutions. If the government “promotes” reform of labor legislation, which is not supported by the majority of trade unions, it will not be accepted by the workers with enthusiasm, whatever the efforts of propagandists. If certain groups of citizens are dissatisfied with this or that trend in politics, this discontent is unlikely to materialize in the modification of policy, if not supported by any of the influential parties (or if you do not trigger the creation of a new one). In Russia, the “killing power” (in any meaning of the first word), the pro-government propaganda immeasurably higher than in most democratic countries, and the reverse effect of population on power – immeasurably below. Therefore, influence is “cooler” (bottom of pulses) is less significant than the “TV” (pressure from above). That is why, even if the value of “refrigerator” for most people begin to outweigh the role and influence of the “TV” (which is partly already happening), the public simply would be difficult to learn about it.
On the other hand, there is much more important point, which I want to stay for more.
When most people consider their financial situation good, it seems that if it changes people can take to the streets. If the standard of living is reduced to a certain limit, what happens: disgruntled becomes larger protest is all the more noticeable. At some point there comes the danger of “bifurcation point”: people stop en masse to believe the propaganda, but their lives are still looks normal, ie, disposing a normal response (to protests, criticism, organized action, electoral activity)… This is the most dangerous moment for the authorities: the country looks essentially normal, although the authorities apparently “derailed.” It is in such moments are possible, in my view, a serious social upheaval, ending ultimately productive reforms
However, if any changes or reform does not happen, it is likely the “failure” of society below this point of instability -. In, oddly enough, the “new stability.” If propaganda manage to hold society in a state of tension; if a significant part of the critically minded population comes from the struggle (eg, emigrated); if the supposed threat continues to look real for the majority – in this situation, “the fridge”, which would have led to its triumph over the “TV”, simply does not exist. For a complete propaganda victory of common sense is only necessary that the survival of the process began to occupy all the time and thoughts of the majority of citizens
In Russia, many have become accustomed to the fact that the main issue of the day -. What restaurant to go to dinner, and, No matter how the choice will ultimately be resolved, for dinner you can gossip about power and its follies. But if we assume that after the work had to stand in line for the most necessary, contact the “Uncle Petya,” who promised to postpone the scarce “import substitution” for car tires, because the free sale of spare parts for a long time forgotten, and yet it is desirable to earn a little money in addition to the basic salary, which does not survive – where is the place of a discussion of the authorities and the time to participate in pickets
in fact, so were living not only in the Soviet Union, which, in some respects, we are rapidly coming back – such was the reality of existence in many countries, where governments have managed to convince their people that they are in a hostile environment, and able to create a minimally effective system of forced suppression of dissatisfied. In this case I’m not talking about North Korea – just remember it is a European Yugoslavia the second half of the 1990s, Zimbabwe 2000s and, at worst, today’s Venezuela, where the people on the whole democratic elections two years ago, rather uneducated demagogue in the presidential Palace products and toilet paper on the shelves.
Today, in Russia, in my opinion, there are serious reasons for “falling through” to this new state of stability. Power expertly carries creeping assault on the rights of citizens (pushes the policy of society, limits the ability of the protest, is preparing for a sharp overlap of access to information); actively pushes the country Dissent (new laws, formally limiting the exit from Russia, in fact, aimed more at encouraging emigration); It is doing all it can to strengthen the policy of domination over the economy (which is well illustrated by, in particular, the last debate in the Economic Council). And I think that the current political elite has a good chance of success and the achievement of a new steady state in which the ideology of radical prevail over common sense.
The moment in which the system might be required bifurcation occurred for 2013-2015: at this time of internal policy pursued by the authorities and supplemented by changes in economic conditions in the global markets, the situation led to just such a collapse, which could give real benefits to the illusion. However, such a threatening power development was docked a number of events, from the Olympics in Sochi with Russian triumph, and the capture of the Crimea to the efforts for a political reconstruction of the “Russian world” and the confrontation with the West. On raised their wake society’s ability to adequately perceive negative information down – and therefore nearing a “second act” in the TV fight with a fridge, an act that will take place with a more explicit dominance of the former over the latter than the one we saw earlier
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How will the final? Of course, it will come down to the return of the country and society to more sustainable types of behavior. However, it will happen no earlier than the actual power elite will lose the desire to continue the previously selected rate (which in principle can happen – example is Cuba, with its slow reforms), or leaves the scene of natural causes (although the example of Mugabe gives not too encouraging landmarks on terms of such changes). At the very least, to rapid change, I would not count. The system as never far from the imbalance – good or not
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