The most important events and results of 2015, expectations and projections for 2016 from the director of the Center for Labor Research and ordinary professor of HSE Vladimir Gimpelson.
The most important events and results of 2015
The focus of my professional attention in 2015, as in previous years, was the Russian labor market. The way this market works, the effect on well-being and career prospects of people in the efficiency of the economy and the quality of goods and services, as well as many other things. No wonder that every crisis is sound and widespread concern: what will happen to our jobs and salaries?
In 2015, the economic crisis has come in its entirety, was manifested in the large-scale decline in production, investment and consumption, but the explosion of unemployment did not happen. Moreover, the unemployment rate remained low (5.8% in November), and employment – high (over 65%). Well, no wonder there is sent down to us from above? And do not excuse it for legitimate pride? Alas, not a miracle and not a reason!
Those patterns in the labor market reaction to shocks, which have emerged in the 90s, appeared again – the other years, and the reactions are the same. What is surprising, because the key labor market institutions that determine the nature of the reaction, not fundamentally changed. The urgent need for companies to reduce costs in response to the contraction of the economy led to a reduction in salaries – an average of 9-10% in real terms. For many, this significant reduction. Reducing payroll through lower revenues – caused a decrease in turnover, the compression of consumption and the growth of poverty. Decreased and productivity (because GDP is falling, and employment – not) as in the economy and in the main sectors. Deteriorated and the structure of employment: unproductive and socially unprotected jobs was apparently more.
So, our job market ends 2015 with mixed results, “winning” the number (maintain high employment and low unemployment ), it is outright “blew” quality (wages). How to assess this result? I leave it to readers’ Polit.ru “each of us, glancing around him, he can put the evaluation.
The expectations or predictions for the year 2016
Expectations the future depends on the health of the economy. Much in 2016 already predetermined – geopolitical tensions, unpredictable political decisions, cheap oil, the structure of the budget, lack of investment, sanctions and antisanktsiyami, as well as the inertia of the main economic processes. So, I think our labor market will continue to move in the selected mode.
The number and level of employment will remain high, and unemployment is generally low. Large and medium-sized enterprises continue creeping “weight loss” (reduction of excessive employment), but will do it as slowly and carefully as before. Apparently, the adaptation in this segment is not yet completed. This decent jobs for job seekers will be less, and thus incentives to work informally – more and more.
The available statistics for the last months of 2015 was a hint at the possible increase in unemployment in the new year. But even if the unemployment rate perelezet abroad 6% (which is quite possible), this does not alter the general conclusion is low unemployment. Up to two-digit numbers very far away.
Here, the future dynamics of the salary is not very encouraging. It will depend on the dynamics of GDP, and that, in turn, the price of oil. The sources of economic growth for next year is not visible, and the numerous risks lie on the surface. We must prepare for the fact that in the cheese product from palm oil may not be enough.
What to read, to look at the New Year holidays
What follows from the above? First of all, it follows that it is necessary to efficiently spend the New Year holidays. The labor market – we are no exception – value human capital, including a good job and a decent salary. Hence, it is necessary to improve their health and learn new things. And then, and more precisely in the new year will come in handy for any GDP growth and the unemployment rate. I think the less we watch TV, so all things being equal, higher the chances on the labor market. A good book, by contrast, are very helpful.
For those who are looking for holidays intelligent, but fascinating reading, I recommend the newly released translation of the famous book Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, “Why are some countries rich and others poor. The origin of power, prosperity and poverty »(D.Acemoglu and J.Robinson, Why Nations Fail. 2012). It is the world best-selling models and formulas without written by serious scientists the Nobel level. In this book, the reader is waiting for an intriguing discussion of the key issues of economic and political science, combined with a tour of the world economic history through the centuries and continents. But this book – and about today and about tomorrow. Maybe someone will find and answers to the “mysteries” of the labor market, which are discussed above.
Preferences readers “of Polit.ru»
Any New notes must end with New Year wishes. I wish all readers (and writers and creators, of course) of the project “Polit.ru” in the New Year of health, happiness, strength, patience, professional success and fruitful ideas. Everything will be fine!
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