thirtieth of May in Yekaterinburg hosted the conference” The future of regional radio. ” It is, in principle, should not have to pay attention – these meaningless conferences per year may be several dozen. However, it is interesting in that it was an unexpected confession: Ministry of Communications did not understand how to develop broadcasting in Russia after 2015. Recognition of the deputy minister Alexei Volin more like a cry from the heart: “Technological Horizons – we are now, for example, in the Ministry of them do not feel. We understand what the situation is today, but we do not see those standards, where will the radio tomorrow, and we do not see those business models that took place there ».
Quite unexpected (and what could be there – fair enough) Recognition the inability to identify at least the contours of the future of the industry. Although the Ministry of Communications has set about developing a plan, which will be the final concept that is now impossible to say. Previous experience of the target program (before it ended there are not too many) does not inspire optimism. The editors decided to make a forecast of the delivery technology TV subscribers and prospects for digital terrestrial television, which is currently engaged in the state.
Technologies delivery
content delivery technology TV to the consumer three: ethereal, cable and satellite.
ethereal involves the transmission of radio signals from ground-based relay centers through the air on a group or individual subscriber antenna. This nationwide network built centers, each of which covers a certain area. To date, transmission may be both analog and digital.
cablecast combines many different technologies from traditional analog signal and ending SmartTV. Although the technology of signal transmission may radically differ, one subscriber connection technology – the apartment is put cable (coaxial, optical or copper UTP), which transmits an electrical signal from a specialized headend, core or higher operator / content provider.
Finally, satellite TV also operates a radio signal, but its source is not ground-centers and satellites. Satellite signal is now exclusively digital (last channels were switched off in 2012), is taken on a satellite dish, which everyone called “the plate.” One satellite covers a much larger area than any relay center or the headend. By the way, many far from the center of the cable headend and receive the signal from the satellite.
In Russia the first technology traditionally relegated to state, but the second and third – Commercial. This separation is historical: in the USSR, all television was state television, with the state also spread through the air broadcasting. After the collapse of the country began to appear other companies, occupying a niche, which in those days were not paying attention: cable and satellite TV. Terrestrial TV and radio “businessmen” did not involve, as from the outset and were free to make them pay for the residents of Russia is absolutely impossible.
So it happened that the state and private firms are engaged in the sectors of the market is almost independent of each other. And if the future of cable and satellite sectors rather rosy, the future of broadcasting is not just a lot of questions, and real fears. Because the second and third delivery technology – the first direct competitors.
federal program of digital broadcasting
in 2009 adopted a federal program “Development of broadcasting in the Russian Federation for 2009 – 2015 years. ” The result of this program should be the provision of broadcasting almost the entire population of Russia.
Upon completion of the Program will achieve the following values ??of the objective indicators:
– the population of the Russian Federation, is not covered in broadcasting, in the final phase of the program should be less than one thousand people;
– the proportion of the population of Russia, which has the ability to receive the mandatory TV and radio channels – 100%;
– area of ??the RF subjects covered by digital terrestrial TV and radio channels required (covering at least 50% of the population of the subject of the Russian Federation ) – 17098200 km2;
– the proportion of the population of Russia, which has the ability to receive free access to 20 TV channels, – 97,6%.
Thus, virtually everyone in the country in 2016 will be able to guarantee get a couple of dozen channels in digital form.
was developed for this range of activities involving the construction of terrestrial broadcasting centers format DVB-T2, the launch of several satellites and so on and so forth. On the program was planned to allocate 121,824.6 million rubles (in prices of the respective years). Amount, quite frankly, not very small. But this is only the sum of the program, to operate a large-scale network will also have to spend money.
Overall, the document turned out quite voluminous and complete. It explained step by step stages of implementation, efficiency calculations, key performance indicators, and much more. The only thing it does not – this is the rationale for the program. More precisely, the justification is there, but it’s kind of “existing infrastructure is outdated, does not provide, can not, do not pull, does not provide.” It would seem – yes, really well. Just a question – why fix it?
What is DVB-T2-happiness?
Suppose the target program has been successfully completed and the desired results were achieved . A digital signal has reached the most remote corners of the country and even bears in the forest were not able to escape from the “Full House” and “Fields of Wonders.” The question is – how to convert this signal into a picture on the TV? Which, by the way, mainly in the provinces are still analog.
And then comes the understanding that the “luck” will have to pay. Either buy a new TV with a built-in tuner, or purchase a separate attachment. What is not such a trivial task – not all TVs sold currently support the standard.
For example, on Yandex.market offered only 57 tuners with support of the standard. But their sale is even less – only 33. Furthermore, not all tuners support desired outputs the result that the filter will have from 10-15 models. Prices start from 1190 rubles for the very model of a simple type Rolsen RDB-506N:
Reviews of results of operation vary – someone runs like clockwork, with someone often have problems. However, DVB-T2-receivers are not unique in this, it seems they behave and DVB-C and DVB-S.
situation TVs better – for sale 533 model according to the same Yandex.Market. The cheapest with a 19-inch costs from 4830 rubles:
Cheapest TV receiver DVB-T2
way, CRT models with a digital tuner We have not found. Sami TVs are still available, but shifted in a very budget sector than 4 thousand rubles and the maximum diagonal of 21 inches. Some 29 inch monsters weather do not. It seems that while this technique has already been completed, so when buying a new TV to watch the ether will have to rely solely on the LCD.
forecasts and market research of digital terrestrial TV
As is common in Russia, some global studies prior to approval of digitization program ester was carried out. They were held at the height of the work, and their quality can be questioned. The first was a study in the November-December 2011 by the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It is available on the website RTRS (the operator of the program), and a generally positive describes the introduction of digital TV. More than half the countries wish to connect to the broadcast television in digital form. For example, in metropolitan areas, this percentage reached 48:
Even if we consider that the survey was conducted and a half years ago, to show two out of three households (every second resident – about two out of three households) Moscow-air television do not believe in any way. Apparently, like other polls, here played a role the ability to ask questions in the right way. For example, the questions “Do you want to connect?” And “Will you connect?” Though similar, but different. Many may wish to connect to, and that’s really doing it are few. If you ask a question in the style of “whether you are connected to air TV, if you have access to cable and satellite?” – Most likely, most would answer in the negative.
second study done consulting firm J’son & Partners Consulting in mid-2012. Study in more detail and less biased than the previous one, but also leaves serious questions. First, projections and some figures are almost the ceiling. For example, in 2013, satellite television subscribers is projected to be around 10 million. However, at the beginning, the subscriber base of one Tricolor was 12.4 million households. Subject to other operators (Orion Express, NTV +, and others) the total number of subscribers could well reach 15 million in the spring. In this regard, refer to the forecasts of the company to be more critical. Secondly, there was a strange method of calculation applied per cent of the market, where in one graph comparing the signal transmission technology and patterns of consumption:
In addition, it is unclear for whereby air TV audience for the year (from 2011 to 2012) fell to 9,000,000 households. However, its growth rate, outstripping the growth rate of the market of satellite television, “raduyu” a lot more.
The result was that when the decisions were made and plans were drawn up, no one imagined that in general is on the market. Not to mention the fact that he’ll be in a few years. In this situation, the Ministry of Communications statements are not surprising that they do not understand where the industry is moving.
Who is watching?
Any manager knows – before starting new product should conduct market research to find a niche. Whatever the product is good, if there are no people there in need, it will not be used. For example, it is unlikely conditioners will be in demand in the permafrost.
Alas, the design concept of the digital broadcasting is also targeting was not done. Responsible ministry has taken just for the fact that air television to all those who have watched it before. However, this is not the case – now the consumption structure has changed. What groups are potential consumers of digital terrestrial TV?
First, it is certainly the residents of the private sector, not only villages, but towns. In this case, the farther away from the city, the more demand the ability to view the ether.
Secondly, it is a separate apartment apartment houses and small apartment about half of the two-and trehetazhek.
course Such a division is rather arbitrary. Also in the private sector, a lot of people get from satellite TV. It is likely that the category of people for whom the actual broadcast television, live it to the designated types of homes. These categories are fairly simple: older people, people with a strong “asocial” and people with minimal information requirements. So people do not need a high quality image, not need a huge number of channels and additional features. In addition, they are not willing to spend several hundred dollars to purchase a new TV or pay monthly subscription fee. Three or four of the federal channel will fully satisfy them, is much more important that they are getting any for free.
J’son & Partners Consulting, in its report estimated the number of such households at least 21.7 million. That is, almost every other citizen of the country one way or another wants to watch the “figure” over the air. However, in our view, as the number of households and people clearly overstated. The reason for this – in the rapid development of other technologies signal delivery.
against satellite and cable ether
fundamental mistake that allowed for planning a deployment of digital broadcasting – is complete disregard for other technologies to produce a signal. All forecasts Communications Ministry does not take into account any cable or satellite TV. And a very good reason, because they do not leave any chance to broadcasting for the masses. If it is not in some distant future, but in the next few years.
Economically it turned out that cable TV is basically watch people in high-rise buildings, and satellite – the inhabitants of the private sector. Of course, there are people who hang plates on the balcony, and someone lucky enough to have a separate cable to his own house, but it is still the exception. Once on the houses was a common antenna, which were connected to all residents, but those days are long gone. The reason for connecting to commercial operators is simple – the best quality and variety of channels. For a relatively small fee of 200-300 rubles a month Rostelecom and Beeline offer about 100 channels with perfect quality. In these 100 channels are guaranteed to include those that are in the air. Tricolor went even further and also offers a number of channels is even cheaper – for 50 rubles a month. Alas, the latter will have to pay about 8-10 thousand for the satellite receiver and installation, which is more expensive 3.4 million for the rec eiver DVB-C or IP-TV. However, as we shall see later, these prices do not serve as a significant barrier.
Even as “local” analogue TV operators outperform the state broadcaster, although they will in future give way providers of digital television. There is no doubt that the subscriber is connected to a cable and satellite television, the more so, do not agree to give it up for air, even digital. In connection with this potential base of digital terrestrial TV these households are definitely not. Even if people will not attract additional packages, government multiplex operators are obliged to provide free of charge.
In addition, all experts agree – pay-TV market will continue to grow, and rather quickly. Specific predictions vary, but it’s about.
Phenomenon Tricolor
Perhaps the strongest competitor for terrestrial TV is satellite Internet in the face of the Tricolor. On the part of his success seem impossible – on 12 March 2013 the operator had a subscriber base of 12.4 million households. For example, during the first three months of this year, joined more than 500,000 subscribers. Such growth may show only a few other operators in total. If the company’s forecasts come true (and there are all prerequisites), then the beginning of 2014 the total subscriber base to reach 14.5-15 million households, and is 43,5-45 million users, ie one-third of the country. By 2017, the company aims to reach a figure of 20 million households. The majority of new subscribers will come from the private sector. Given that the rural population of Russia in 2010 amounted to 37.5 million people, if you can not with certainty, it does not really say when you make mistakes – the target date of the majority of people in private homes will loo k Tricolor. Moreover, apart from the Tricolor, there are other operators, giving a total of about 2 million households. Already in the private sector of the city almost every third house is equipped with a plate.
And so it turns out that every year the potential base-air TV in the paint to her segment (private home) will fall by several million .
Never Say Never
Despite the rapid connection to the paid television broadcasting will be claimed by those categories of people about whom we have spoken above. Question in a different – how big is this group? In large and medium-sized cities are already pay-TV penetration rate reaches 70-90 points, and by the end of 2015 this figure will grow. From small towns will be exactly the same, but with a certain time lag. Accordingly, the high-rise sector for terrestrial TV is almost lost. Similar processes occur in the private sector. The result is that the share of clean-air TV is not so great. And most importantly – it will plummet. By 2020, just connect all those who wanted to do this, not to mention the fact that the increased number of people who just does not appeal to television.
So why even launched a program of digitization of the ether? The aim seems to be good – to improve the quality of the image and finally defeat the digital divide. Just a question – for whom? Infrastructure construction from the start will not work with very high efficiency, and by 2020 – just “idle.” People are not exchange their 100 + channels and additional features to the free 8 or 20. You can draw an analogy – all the houses the state proposed to tap with hot and cold water. Kind of like a good, free of charge, but almost all would put the taps, as it is much more convenient. No doubt, there would be people who do not have to change, but do would cost for them to build a separate infrastructure and take up space in communications?
As it was necessary to do
Instead of developing and modernizing rapidly aging structure, back-new, should have focused on the support of modern technologies: cable and satellite television. If you come quite clumsy and “take and share” for each by 9000 rubles, the allocated billions could pay 13.5 million sets Tricolor with the installation. Although such a giant order would give a good Skidoo to 40-50%, so that you can focus on the 20 million units. This is how easily resolved to the “digital divide” across the private sector of the country. Moreover, the population would be available not only state the multiplexes, and hundreds of channels with a variety of additional services. At the same time it was possible to support the dealer network, staffed by locals.
Another very big plus would be no need to take a portion of the spectrum. Digital TV in Russia uses quite tasty decimeter range that would be found wanting. It could be used as a state for internal use as well as commercial companies. In the latter case, the proceeds from the sale of the money could also be spent on the purchase of equipment.
Of course, such a solution, though the simplest, but not the right. Not very well set to give the owner of a three-story mansion. It is necessary to introduce some reasonable restrictions, such as the level of income. Yes, one could argue that such discrimination, we do not fit into the concept of “happiness all in vain and to no one went away offended,” but let us recall – for “happiness” will have to pay a minimum purchase of receiver.
For urban residents is even easier – to connect the vast number of providers for free and multiplex to take money they are not entitled. One could simply compensate providers for the subscriber line formation – its price is significantly below the price of the installation of satellite equipment. For the cable TV at no matter how many subscribers will be connected – a signal arrives there at the same time on all bends, even if there are no customers around. Thus, the question of lost profits is not. If the subscriber wants to include a complete package, no additional effort will not have to take him.
little harder with providers IPTV, because the equipment is there to re-buy as they become customers and busy multiplex ports – this is not the illusory need in the future buy another switch. However, even the 20 ports are cheaper than one receiver, and the places where there is no cable and IPTV providers – units.
Yes, this scheme does not look perfect, but it is much better than the huge infusion of money in the budget to the cartage a time when people are already in full use cars.
So all the same – who needs it?
In summary we arrive at the paradoxical conclusion – the largest beneficiary is the operator of the program RTRS. Digital Terrestrial TV program just will not be closed in 2020, although at that time the technology is already very few people will be needed. This means that the project will be to pour money to operate, upgrade, payment of wages and the like.
Will the prime benefit subscribers? Sure, some of the digital “efirka” like it. But for the same or even less money you can provide a service to the order of magnitude better and better.
Telekomza
No comments:
Post a Comment